There are still hidden worries behind the recovery

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On November 11, 2009, the National Bureau of statistics released China's macroeconomic data for October as scheduled. Although CPI and PPI still showed a downward trend, the decline continued to narrow; Industrial production continued to accelerate. In October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 16.1% year-on-year, 7.6 percentage points faster than that of the same month last year. The trend of China's economic stabilization and recovery became more obvious

China's macroeconomic environment is increasingly optimized. What is the trend of the economic operation of the electrical industry at this stage? This issue of "financial perspective" focuses on relevant industry data to interpret and understand the recent economic operation of the electrical industry behind the data

with the release of macroeconomic data in October this year, China's economy has continued to rebound and the positive trend has been consolidated, and many industries have fallen below the trough, showing a momentum of accelerated development and rising against the trend. The electrical industry, hit by the international financial crisis and domestic expansion of domestic demand, is not a dark color or calcium carbonate filled polyolefin. Although the growth rate of production and sales, export delivery value and import and export trade volume have fallen significantly compared with the same period of last year, the total profits of the whole industry have been greatly improved: from the negative growth of "-14.75% from January to February at the beginning of the year to the narrowing of" -7.40% from January to may, Transition to a positive growth of "1.58% from January to August"

"in the era of planned economy, whenever the economy is adjusted, the decline of the machinery industry is greater than the industrial average. However, in the first eight months of this year, the growth rate of the added value of the machinery industry is 2 percentage points higher than the industrial average, and the profit is 17 percentage points higher." Caiweici, executive vice president of China Machinery Industry Federation, said

although the rapid recovery of the electrical industry in the financial crisis is gratifying, industry experts say that the "stabilization and recovery" at this time cannot be completely equivalent to the "recovery", and the electrical industry still needs to face many uncertain factors to completely recover to the development level before the financial crisis

"warm air" is coming

since the financial crisis broke out in an all-round way last year, China has taken a package of timely and decisive measures to deal with the continuous recession of the real economy. With the gradual implementation of various policies and measures, China's electrical industry has made positive changes in production and sales growth, structural adjustment, technological innovation and so on

from the macro level of the industry, in the first three quarters of this year, China's electrical industry achieved a total industrial output value of 199.86 billion yuan, an increase of 7.62% year-on-year; The sales output value was 1926.99 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.81%. In addition, the small and continuous rise of gross industrial output value has also driven the total profits of the industry out of the trough and achieved a comprehensive "positive". Among them, the wire and cable industry and the manufacturing industry of distribution switch control equipment performed particularly well, achieving a year-on-year growth of 6.5% and 15.8%

according to the prosperity index of the equipment manufacturing industry released by the China Economic Prosperity Monitoring Center of the National Bureau of statistics in the third quarter of this year, the industry prosperity index is 99.3 (the base number is 100 points), and the recovery trend of the equipment manufacturing industry has been obvious. For this "warm air" attack, relevant analysts believe that the good news of the policies such as the "plan for the adjustment and revitalization of the equipment manufacturing industry" and the "notice on adjusting the import tax policy of major technical equipment" issued by the state successively before is an important reason for the smooth operation of the industry

driven by this factor, many sub industries in the electrical industry, as one of the main bodies of the equipment manufacturing industry, have also achieved a counter trend breakthrough under the crisis. Relevant data show that in the first three quarters, 13 of the 21 major products in the electrical industry still achieved year-on-year growth in the "cold winter" of the economy, including 6 sub industries, such as optical cables, high-voltage switches above 110000 volts, mutual inductors, and welding machines, with an increase of more than 20%. On this basis, the demand for 6/10 and 10/10 resins of DuPont renewable source level is increasing day by day, and the industry's cumulative growth rate exceeds the growth data of new product output value of more than two digits, which also further promotes the structural optimization and upgrading of China's electrical industry

in addition, on the one hand, the concept of "green economy" caused by the financial crisis has also quietly raised the concept of paying attention to energy conservation, environmental protection and sustainable development in the electrical industry. "In recent years, the country has gradually promoted the integration of industrialization and informatization and vigorously developed modern service manufacturing industry, which has become a new development trend of the machinery industry." Previously, Wang Ruixiang, President of the China Machinery Industry Federation, said at the "6th China Industry International Competitiveness Forum" hosted by the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of industry and information technology, "in addition to hydropower and solar energy equipment, the output of wind power generation equipment increased by 135% year-on-year in the first half of 2009."

on the other hand, the demand for electricity has fallen sharply, especially the thermal power equipment enterprises, which are deeply affected by the sharp decline in orders, the increased risk of contract execution and other factors, and the momentum of production reduction is obvious. In the first three quarters, a total of 83.3942 million kw of generating units were completed, a year-on-year decrease of 14.99%, the output of steam turbine generators was 59.7511 million KW, a year-on-year decrease of 21.23%, and the output of utility boilers was 245000 steam tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.23%. Although the decline has gradually narrowed, the industry generally believes that in view of the implementation of national policies such as energy structure optimization and energy conservation and emission reduction, the thermal power equipment market may officially enter the stage of structural adjustment, Extend to the high-efficiency, energy-saving and high-capacity product system

the "cold" and "hot" behind the recovery

"the industry as a whole is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter of this year. It is expected that the growth rate of annual output value and added value will be more than 12%, and the growth rate of realized profits will be more than 10% Cai Weici predicted. While affirming the continued warming trend of the electrical industry in the fourth quarter, experts also pointed out that the international and domestic economic situation is still complex and severe, and the electrical industry is still far from "recovery"

one of the important reasons why experts have reservations about the future growth of the industry is that the current import and export of the electrical industry is still declining. Under the influence of the macroeconomic level, although the decline in the import and export of China's electrical products has been continuously narrowed, the total import and export volume of China's electrical industry in the first three quarters of this year reached US $65.483 billion, an increase of -18.72% year-on-year, of which the decline in exports was particularly prominent, with a year-on-year decrease of 21.27%. In the process of key monitoring of 17 categories of products, the China Electrical Appliance Industry Association found that as of September this year, the cumulative export volume of 14 categories of products had shown a downward trend, including 9 categories of products with a decline of more than 20%

in this regard, experts believe that although the economic index data of the sealing machine as the last process cloth in the packaging production line in western developed countries tend to improve, the external economic growth momentum still needs to be strengthened. In addition, during this period, many countries hope to expand exports with the plastic bending machine detection method to alleviate the domestic trade deficit problem, resulting in the gradual increase of international trade frictions, As a result, the external market environment of China's import and export trade has worsened. "It is difficult to expect that foreign demand will make a positive contribution to the growth of import and export of the industry in the short term." Wang Ruixiang said

at the same time, he further said that in addition to the impact from the macroeconomic situation and the external environment, the long-standing problems within the industry should also be paid attention to. "As far as mechanical products are concerned, the self-sufficiency rate of China's products has exceeded 80%, but at present, the long-term accumulated structural contradictions such as weak industrial independent innovation ability, backward basic manufacturing level, low added value of product technology content, imperfect industrial chain and unbalanced industrial structure, as well as the repeated construction and decentralized layout of some products covered by continuous years of high-speed growth, have seriously affected the pace of recovery of the industry."

on August 26 this year, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and Reform Commission pointed out in the "2009 summer report on the operation of China's industrial economy" that the problem of repeated construction and disorderly launch of emerging industries such as solar energy and wind power is very serious. As of September this year, the data of 459.13% year-on-year growth of China's wind power generation equipment also supports this statement from another side. However, in addition to the new energy industry, serious overcapacity is also common in other electrical sub industries

taking the cable industry as an example, many enterprises have invested heavily in building new plants and purchasing production lines and equipment from abroad in the name of developing new products or high-end technical products, often hundreds of millions, billions, or even more than 2 billion yuan, forming a new round of repeated investment boom. At present, there are also numerous cable projects in "cable cities", "industrial bases", "cluster areas" large and small across the country, as well as cable projects listed as "pillar industries" by governments at all levels, which makes the cable industry, which has been over developed and has serious overcapacity, even worse

specifically, for the vertical production line (VCV) of high-voltage cross-linked cables, 32 have been put into operation by the end of 2008 (only one of them is domestic), and 28 have purchased equipment and are planned to be put into operation in 2009 and later, a total of 60. The completion of these production lines has further idled China's domestic VCV production lines, which originally had a 40% equipment utilization rate, and caused vicious competition, such as Jerry built, shoddy, low-cost competition and even fake and shoddy products, to become more and more serious

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