Brief comment on the hottest domestic triphenyl Ma

2022-08-17
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A brief comment on the domestic "three benzene" market

Asian market: the international crude oil continued to rise in the second half of last week, and reached the level of $60/barrel. Driven by this, the overall aromatic hydrocarbon market rose sharply. The latest quotations of pure benzene, toluene and xylene in South Korea were $835/ton, $685/ton and $672.5/ton respectively, up $80/ton, $40/ton and $42.5/ton respectively compared with the same period last week, and the import duty paid prices were 8570 yuan/ton 7030 yuan/ton and 6900 yuan/ton. As the demand for styrene, phenol and other downstream products of pure benzene has increased, the market has warmed up; Toluene and xylene are supported by strong gasoline sales in the United States and Japan in summer. At present, insiders are optimistic about the overall market of "three benzene". However, in the medium and long term, the current level of downstream procurement is not high; In addition, in July, the overhaul of most units in South Korea and China will be completed, and the aromatics production will be significantly increased compared with the previous period; And with the end of the peak season of gasoline consumption, the demand for toluene and xylene will be relatively reduced; These factors will increase the market supply of toluene and xylene for a period of time in the future, thereby inhibiting their price rise. Therefore, the aromatics market may fall in the later stage, but due to the strong support of crude oil prices, it is expected that the callback space is limited

domestic pure benzene Market: driven by the higher external market and downstream products, domestic pure benzene rose sharply this week. At present, the mainstream prices of domestic refineries are 8000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton over the same period last week. However, it is understood that in addition to Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. which has arranged an export plan of 3000 tons this month, the sales of pure benzene in this plant is relatively smooth, and the sales of other refineries are general. The price rise is mainly followed by the rising trend of the external market. At present, there are more maintenance of styrene devices in China, and due to the high price, the operating volume of some small downstream plants is reduced, which makes the overall demand of the pure benzene market small, and it is difficult for pure benzene products from domestic refineries to leave the factory except for mutual supply of resources, The inventory is on the high side as a whole

domestic toluene and xylene Market: the market prices of toluene and xylene continued to rise driven by the external market and crude oil during the long test cycle at the end of last week and the beginning of this week. On Tuesday, the market prices in East China were 7000 yuan/ton and 6700 yuan/ton respectively, and the market prices in South China were 7000 yuan/ton and 6950 yuan/ton respectively. However, on the whole, the current market still lacks the support of downstream users' purchase volume, the mentality of merchants is unstable, and they are sensitive to the fluctuation of crude oil price. Once the market rises, the cargo holders actively sell goods, while the buyers hesitate to replenish goods. When the price is too high, they retreat and ask for it, and instead pay attention to the substitute market of toluene and xylene, resulting in extreme shrinking trading volume. In addition, in the first two weeks, some traders took advantage of the rise in oil prices to speculate in the market, and quickly withdrew from the market after shipping to clarify the pilot object and scope, resulting in a lack of market sentiment and insufficient momentum for price rise. So once the oil price falls, the aromatics market will immediately weaken. At present, the mainstream quotation of toluene in East China is yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price is 6750 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton over the same period last week; The mainstream quotation of xylene is yuan/ton (Zhangjiagang irrigation), and the mainstream transaction price is about 6600 yuan/ton (Zhangjiagang irrigation), an increase of 150 yuan/ton over the same period last week. The mainstream quotation of toluene in South China is yuan/ton (from Shatian irrigation), and the mainstream transaction price is 6950 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton over the same period last week; The mainstream quotation of xylene is yuan/ton (Shatian irrigation), and the mainstream transaction price is 6850 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton over the same period last week. Due to the payment of foreign exchange at the end of the month, the expiration of warehousing and other reasons, some traders are eager to ship and withdraw funds, but most downstream users are still on the sidelines to reduce the cost of testing and protection, and the trading volume is limited

domestic refineries: this week, the length and width of domestic refineries are 1200 mm and 60 mm respectively, and the factory prices continue to rise sharply. The ex factory prices of maoethylene are 6980 yuan/ton (+560) and 6800 yuan/ton (+370) respectively, and the ex factory prices of Guangzhou Petrochemical are 7000 yuan/ton (+320) and 7000 yuan/ton (+450) respectively; Toluene and xylene of Jiujiang Petrochemical are 6700 yuan/ton (+300) and 6600 yuan/ton (+250) respectively; Toluene and xylene of Changling branch are 6700 yuan/ton (+250) and 6600 yuan/ton (+200) respectively; Yangba toluene and xylene are 6700 yuan/ton (+600) and 6600 yuan/ton (+400) respectively; Toluene and xylene of Jinling Petrochemical are 6750 yuan/ton (+250) and 6650 yuan/ton (+250) respectively; Zhenhai toluene 6800 yuan/ton (+300); Shanghai Jinshan toluene 6850 yuan/ton (+650); Shijiazhuang aromatics unit started normally, and the xylene quotation was 6800 yuan/ton (+300). It is reported that when the refineries adjusted the price, the market price reached the highest level this week, and then the market price fell back. Therefore, the refineries reported that the price was on the high side and the sales were slow

analysis of potential factors affecting the domestic aromatic hydrocarbon Market: on the one hand, due to high prices, downstream demand has not been effectively amplified; On the other hand, the overhaul of domestic aromatics units has been completed successively. In July, Shijiazhuang Refinery, Tianjin Petrochemical, Luoyang Branch, Guangzhou Petrochemical and other units have been started successively. The output of Yangba and Shanghai Secco has gradually reached full capacity. The domestic supply of "benzene, benzene and benzene" will increase significantly, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the lower stage will gradually emerge; Third, domestic import resources are still relatively sufficient, and import inventories are not digested well. Therefore, the domestic aromatic hydrocarbon market price in the later stage may fall

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